S5E112 28 Mar 2022
S5E112: Project forecasting is a "wicked problem" with Dr Dan Patterson In this episode, Dale and Val bring back Dr Dan Patterson to talk about what he has been brewing since their last podcast. Wicked’ problems are problems that cannot be definitely solved – they can only be bettered. Tame problems can be definitively solved e.g. fixing a leaky pipe. For 70 years, we have been trying to adopt tools to definitively ‘solve’ projects and as such we all too often run into what we think is ‘project failure’. The problem with a project is that there is no definitive ‘this is solved’ – there are too many competing objectives (eg cost vs schedule vs cope) and also too many stakeholders with differing objectives. Instead of striving for a finite outcome, in the context of the fact projects are under a barrage of constant change and influences, perhaps we should treat planning and execution as being bettered (tamed) and not solved? I see this as the science of meta-planning ie better plan the planning process rather than jumping into planning execution itself. Tame problems can be solved. Wicked problems can only be tamed and that is what meta-planning is all about.
Dr. Dan Patterson is a Schedule and Cost Risk Analysis thought leader. He was the CEO and founder of BASIS, a project management company specializing in schedule and risk analytics, which was acquired in 2018 by InEight, Inc. Prior to BASIS, Dan led the highly successful organization Acumen, a project analytics company, and is the inventor of Acumen Fuse, Risk and 360, a project analytics software suite that is used for project planning quality improvement, performance insight, and forensics analysis.
Dr. Patterson conducts risk workshops for billion-dollar projects and has subsequently served as an expert witness on many. During the execution of these engagements he leads qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, prepares and presents executive summaries, and leads in-person executive briefings to company executives. Dr. Patterson acts as the primary lead on various company and project internal risk optimization procedures. He specializes in risk workshops, project audits, and strategic project analysis on various capital expenditure projects.
With over 20 years of professional experience, Dr. Patterson is recognized as a global thought leader and visionary within the project management industry. Specifically, he is known for his risk and schedule analytics expertise and is frequently utilized on high-profile capital expenditure projects for workshop facilitation, expert witness testimony, advanced analytics, and board-level briefings.
Dr. Patterson has an impressive track record with extensive commercial and technical project management experience on projects that in the aggregate are valued at over $200 billion.
Today, Patterson continues to push the project management boundaries forward with InEight BASIS, the first AI planning tool for CAPEX projects.
Prior to BASIS, Patterson was the founder and CEO of Acumen, and inventor of Acumen Fuse, Risk and 360, a widely-used project metrics analysis and risk management software suite. Acumen was acquired by Deltek in 2013 with the Acumen toolset now used on most major CAPEX projects worldwide.
Prior to Acumen, Patterson founded Pertmaster NA. He brought project risk analysis to the masses with the introduction of an integrated Monte Carlo analysis and risk register solution. This led to the successful acquisition of Pertmaster by Primavera (now Oracle) in 2006.
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