S6E134: Does AI & Machine Learning really make a difference with Alan Mosca
In this week’s pod, we welcomed Alan Mosca to discuss whether machine learning and AI can really make a difference.Alan is the co-founder and CTO of nPlan, where he leads technology, research, and product, whilst developing thought leadership about forecasting and risk. Before nPlan, Alan spent 7 years as a technologist in quantitative finance, on live trading systems, research, and front-office in both high-frequency trading and asset management.Alan has extensive experience in algorithm design and software engineering and holds a BEng in Computer Engineering, MSc in Computer Science, and doctoral research in machine learning theory. The main topics we discussed on the podcast were as follows: Machine Learning (ML) is a sub-branch of AI although the terms are often used interchangeablyML is useful for spotting really complex patternsWhen approaching major projects, machine learning aims to capture the data and experienceThe aim is to make the data simple enough for business leaders to understandAutomation will rescue some project information by providing consistency on transactional actionsThe key to understanding how to make good decisions is to understand the process they are going through to make it (see double diamond process)“Go to their bus stop”!Machine Learning can not and will not fix cultural issues within projects and organisationsML/IA will not replace humans on projects, it can only be used to inform decision makers to improve performanceCritical Path Methodology was great when tools were not available to do multiple scenarios on activitiesUse the current version of the future to make the next version of the future betterCould projects start using a decision log and track the inputs used to inform the decisions? Here are links to some of the topics we discussed:· Double Diamond Decision Process: https://www.designcouncil.org.uk/our-work/news-opinion/double-diamond-universally-accepted-depiction-design-process/· Buyer Decision Process: https://www.iedunote.com/buyer-decision-process· Cognitive Biases: https://thedecisionlab.com/biases· Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Phillip Tetlock, Dan Gardner: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock/dp/1847947158/ref=asc_df_1847947158/?tag=googshopuk-21&linkCode=df0&hvadid=310805565966&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=12494366783115682348&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9045901&hvtargid=pla-454864998863&psc=1&th=1&psc=1· nPlan Experimental Research Department: